New Data consensus forecast by economists at 14 different financial investments, predict a small increase in real GDP in the coming months, but worsen the outlook for 2017.
Experts state economic agencies and non-governmental financial analysts upgraded their consensus forecast of the dynamics of growth of the Ukrainian economy. So, in 2016 Ukraine’s GDP growth will be 1.1%, which is 0.1% higher than forecast by analysts in December last year. At the same time, GDP growth in 2017, according to updated data, will be 2.5%, which is 1 percent less than previously forecast. The relevant data are presented in a study conducted by experts of 14 different economic organizations and companies of Ukraine. A new study, compared with the previous, significantly narrowed the range of the forecast of the dynamics of development of Ukrainian GDP in 2016, from the fall of 1.2% to a rise of 1.7%. While in December spread was in the range of “minus” to 3 “plus” 2.9%. The new study also includes a more pessimistic forecast for the inflation rate of growth in 2016, now account for an increase of 0.4 n -. 13.5%.
In 2017, this figure will be, according to experts, about 9%. At the same time, the new forecast includes the first data on the development of the Ukrainian economy in 2018. According to the first estimates, the growth of the Ukrainian economy could reach 3%, while the growth rate of inflation – will fall to 7.3%.
The consensus forecast is based on the basis of the work of analysts of 14 different state and non-economic institutions of Ukraine. In particular – the Ministry of Economic Development, National Bank of Ukraine, the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the International Centre for Policy Studies, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, the investment company “Dragon Capital”, “of CASE Ukraine” The Bleyzer Foundation and some other.
As previously reported, the International Monetary Fund downgraded the growth forecast for the economy of Ukraine in 2016 – up 1.5% from the previous forecast of 2% as of October 2015. Specialists Fund lowered its forecast for the growth prospects of the Ukrainian economy after the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank. Meanwhile, according to the forecast of the Cabinet, in 2017 expect further depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar to UAH 27.7 in the government, the acceleration of GDP growth to 3%, decrease in inflation to 8.1% and the decline in unemployment to 8%.