The III quarter of the Ukrainian economy grew by 0.7% compared to II quarter, according Ukrstat. In annual terms, the economy is still in recession. C III quarter of 2014 it decreased by 7%, but the rate of decline slowed down: in II quarter the economy declined by 14.6% after a decrease of 17.2% in I quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg, predicted the decline of 9.5%.
Noticeably revived agricultural production, shipping and industry, indicates the head of analytical department of ICU Valchyshen Alexander (quoted by FT). Agricultural production in September fell by 4.2% after falling 5.3% in August, construction – 14.4%, after a decrease of 22.8%. Improving the economic situation contributed to the issue and renewal of steel products: in the III quarter, it increased by 16% compared to II quarter, which led to an increase in exports. A stable exchange rate has improved consumer sentiment and led to the revival of retail trade (see. Chart). But the key reason for the growth of GDP is still low base effect, analysts wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Ukraine’s economy starts to start from the bottom, said Nomura analyst Timothy Ash (quoted by Bloomberg). Ukrstata data confirm that the economy is stabilizing, agree Valchyshen. At the beginning of 2016 growth could be between 1 and 2%, analysts Dragon Capital. Experts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch are more cautious in the estimates: the economy is only nearing the bottom after a deep recession. Recovery will not begin before the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017, they wrote. The situation in the banking sector remains difficult and key reforms have not yet yielded results, they explain. The main risk for the resumption of growth – the lack of investments and the volatility of the economy, which depends on consumption and exports, analysts say “Sberbank CIB».
Government and National Bank had expected economic growth in the IV quarter of 2015 – mainly due to a low base. According to the forecasts of the National Bank, in 2016 GDP will grow by 2-2.4%. BofA analysts predict zero growth in 2016, in 2017 – 2%, in 2018 – by 3%.

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