“There is cautious hope that the economy has reached bottom in mid-2015, and production volumes will stabilize in the second half of the year in terms of local and regional risks remain significant,” – said in an updated forecast of the bank for the Thursday, November 5, 2015.

According to him, estimate of GDP growth in Ukraine in 2016 deteriorated from 3% to 2%.

The EBRD said that the economy of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova are experiencing the negative impacts of regional trends in economic and security sectors, as well as individual factors operating in those countries.

For Russia, the forecast slowdown in the economy this year, improved from 4.5% to 4.2% and in 2016 – from 1.8% to 1.2%, while Belarus – it deteriorated accordingly from 2.5% to 3.5% and from 0% to 1%.

For the countries of Central Europe and the Baltics EBRD forecast kept at the same level. In particular, he expects growth in the Polish economy this year by 3.4% next year – 3.3%, Slovakia – by 3.1% and 3.2%, Hungary – 2.9% and 2.1%.

As for the other neighbors of Ukraine, the outlook for Turkey remains about the same – 3% and 2.8% for Romania has been improved by 0.5 percentage points – respectively 3.5% and 3.7%, and for Moldova preserved Assessment decline 2% this year, and impaired growth estimate in the next from 1.5% to 0%.

State Budget of Ukraine for 2015 was originally built in the optimistic scenario of the situation, providing for the fall in real GDP of 5.5% with inflation of 26.7% and growth of nominal GDP to 1.85 trillion USD. However, the revision of the budget in Parliament on September 17 based on the forecast of the real downturn of 8.9% with inflation of 45.8%, which increased the estimate of nominal GDP to 1.981 trillion USD. Subsequently, the National Bank of Ukraine has deteriorated its outlook downs of the economy this year to 11.5%, and the World Bank – to 12%.

National Bank in 2016 Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast of 2.4% with an inflation rate of 12%, the government also believes it will be possible to achieve growth in the next year by more than 2%.

Recall that in January 2015 the Bank also gave the deterioration of the forecast GDP decline. Then, the Bank downgraded the forecast fall in gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2015 to 5% in comparison with its latest estimate of 3% in September 2014

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