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The world is fighting against plastic. But its production will increase, according to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In accordance with these forecasts, the demand for primary polymers will increase by almost a third by 2030.<\/p>\n
Methanol prospects<\/p>\n
Synthetic polymers are produced on the basis of a number of primary products, which are produced mainly in petrochemical plants: ethylene, propylene, aromatic hydrocarbons, ammonia and methanol. According to the IEA forecast, it is methanol that will provide the largest increase in this sector, its production will increase by more than 50% by 2030. About two thirds of this increase will fall on the Asia-Pacific region, where the production and consumption of chemical products continues to increase China.<\/p>\n
Today, about a third of methyl alcohol is used as a raw material for the production of formaldehydes and their derivatives. The share of methanol to olefins, which are used for the production of films and synthetic fibers, as well as polyurethanes, which are considered the most promising type of polymerized materials, is growing.<\/p>\n
The market is getting crowded<\/p>\n
The main producers of polymers for a long time remained Western chemical corporations. Recently, their positions have been strengthened by companies located in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. As predicted by the IEA, the production of basic thermoplastics by 2050 will grow by 70% and reach 590 million tons. It is difficult to say whether it is correct to formulate a forecast for such a far-off prospect, especially as multidirectional processes are taking place on the world market for polymeric materials.<\/p>\n
IEA experts expect a reduction in plastic consumption in Europe, Japan and Korea. However, the growth of the EU market, according to the company CREON, is no longer just slowed down, but is measured in negative numbers. In parallel, the closure of the capacious Chinese market takes place. In the coming years, China plans to provide its own production of domestic demand for polymers by more than 90%. Over the past five years, a dozen large chemical enterprises have opened in China with a cumulative output of 5.5 million tons of polymers per year. A similar number of similar capacities are planned to be launched within the next year. This means a long-term trend to reduce export shipments to the PRC.<\/p>\n
Prices in the macro-regions of the world have already crawled down, whether following the decline in oil prices, or reacting to fundamental factors. December contract prices for ethylene in the EU decreased by 110 euros per ton, polypropylene fell by 100 euros per ton, styrene – by 150. A similar drop is recorded in Asia, which occurs following the decline in domestic prices in China and rising stocks.<\/p>\n
Extrusion of the Ukrainian manufacturer<\/p>\n
In the near future, domestic producers of chemistry will have to increase their activity in the search for new markets.<\/p>\n
From November 1, Russia imposed sanctions against Ukrainian legal entities and individuals. A number of chemical enterprises, including 9 companies engaged in primary and secondary processing of polymers, came under sanctions; in particular, Prominvest Plastic is a supplier of HFFR and PVC compounds, whose compounding is used for cables in the military-industrial complex and power engineering, including nuclear.<\/p>\n
The launch and restart of Karpatneftekhim somewhat improved the trade balance of the industry due to a reduction in imports in a number of positions. The plant’s capacity allows to produce 250 thousand tons of ethylene per year, 300 thousand tons of polyvinyl chloride, 200 thousand tons of caustic soda and 100 thousand tons of polyethylene.<\/p>\n
According to the Agency “Market Report”, the supply of suspension polyvinyl chloride (PVC-C) to Ukraine for ten months decreased by 36% to 57.1 thousand tons. The total volume of imports of polyethylene decreased by 2% due to a decrease in the supply of high density polyethylene and ethylene vinyl acetate.<\/p>\n
Chain extension monomers<\/p>\n
In Ukraine, new enterprises for the production of polymers. A cluster of Plank is being built near Kiev, which includes three plastics processing plants with the subsequent release of engineering polymers, electrical accessories and other electrical products – about 4.6 million units per year.<\/p>\n
The demand for primary polymers depends entirely on the demand for end products. The key consumers are the construction industry, the packaging industry, the automotive industry, electronics and the production of household appliances. The appearance in the chain of suppliers of these products of domestic producers of polymers should have a positive impact on the previous links of the chain – petrochemistry and producers of plastics. The maximum lengthening of intra-Ukrainian production chains is all the more relevant against the background of increasing competition in the global market.<\/p>\n
The success criteria are the same.<\/p>\n
Demand in some areas is declining now. Already, the attack on food packaging alone can significantly reduce the need for some types of plastics: this market consumes about 40% of the world volume of plastic.<\/p>\n
But the national markets of different countries and regions will go to limit the use of plastic containers at different speeds. Thus, the most important factor in the successful promotion of this type of product will be taking into account the specifics of local markets.<\/p>\n
Some niches are starting to generate long-term demand for certain types of polymers. For example, on high-density polyethylene, going to the production of pipes, which will be increasingly in demand in the Ukrainian utilities. Progress in this industry continues, and staking on the quality and development of new products will help to maintain market positions.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The world is fighting against plastic. But its production will increase, according to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In accordance with these forecasts, the demand for primary polymers will increase by almost a third by 2030. Methanol prospects Synthetic polymers are produced on the basis of a number of primary products, which are […]<\/p>\n